Hizbollah and Israel continue a tense standoff [THE NATIONAL]

January 29, 2015

Over the past couple of weeks, the region has seen the rise of tensions, yet again, between the Israelis and their Arab neighbours. Israeli forces killed Hizbollah operatives in Syria, who are fighting alongside Bashar Al Assad’s regime. Hizbollah, meanwhile, killed two Israeli troops in the Shebaa Farms region, Lebanese territory that Israel occupies.

More violence has taken place, with Israeli forces shelling southern Lebanon and Hizbollah responding. This is not an unusual sequence of events: Israelis, Lebanese, Palestinians and Syrians have seen this cycle time and again. And while there was a window of opportunity to come to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace agreement, it has been squandered. As a consequence, Arabs and Israelis can expect this cycle to continue.

In 2011, there was a prime opportunity for the Israeli establishment to seize a historic moment. The Arab uprisings had shown there was a yearning for change. That dynamic could have been explored to achieve a comprehensive peace agreement with the Palestinians, which would have resulted in a wider integration of Israel into the regional landscape.

Unfortunately, the Israeli political mainstream didn’t see the uprisings as an opportunity. Instead, it viewed them as destabilising. Rather than extending a hand directly to the Arab populations that revolted, Israel hunkered down.

Of course, there is a flip side to that decision. Hunkering down, aligning itself with the most autocratic authorities in the region, and continuing (even intensifying) the cost of the occupation to the Palestinians does not provide Israel with much in the way of a deeper integration into the region. On the contrary, such an approach only further fosters its isolation.

Far beyond its borders, in the European Union, its greatest trade partner, Israel has lost many friends and is gaining many enemies. The policies of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have pushed even traditionally pro-Israel forces to express dismay and dissent.

The move to express solidarity with Palestinians by calling for recognition of a Palestinian state is not confined to one or two countries. It is spreading across the EU.

In the UK, Alan Duncan, a politician who represents the Conservatives (a party well known for its favourable views towards Israel), changed from supporting Israel to supporting recognition of Palestine. In one of the most critical speeches of Israel in the recent history of British politics, he compared the occupation of parts of Hebron to apartheid-era South Africa.

Even Israel’s friends are becoming more aggravated by the Israeli establishment – and it goes beyond Mr Netanyahu. Mr Duncan’s speech was not purely about Likud and its worldview, but many issues that are part of Israel’s political mainstream.

With the most recent opportunity for a wide-ranging peace agreement having been squandered, it is unclear when the next will come, even if there is a change of government in Israel after the March elections. The real impetus for policy in the region does not relate to peace agreements, but agreements about war and conflicts that are now raging. The Palestine issue has been put on the back burner – international powers are far more concerned about Syria and Iraq and controlling the spread of ISIL beyond the borders of those two countries.

Four years after the Arab uprisings began, only a few speak of the Palestinian cause in any meaningful sense, as well as those who are keen to envisage a more progressive and free region.

Both the Israelis and Hizbollah have an interest in avoiding escalation – and they may find a way to do that.

But even if they do, it is only a matter of time before we see another cycle of violence. That is inevitable until a genuine, sustainable and fair peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians becomes a reality. And then, even more tough work will have to begin.

Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC

On Twitter: @hahellyer

Source: The National

Photo Credit: Yeowatzup. CC.