Egyptians Are Again Kept in the Dark on their Political Affairs [The National]

February 27, 2014

Earlier this week, the Egyptian cabinet resigned en masse. Speculation spread that this meant Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El Sisi was going to announce his presidential candidacy, and that the minister of the interior would be dismissed, among other theories. Within 48 hours, all the speculation was proved wrong.

As yet, it is not clear what happened, but there are a few points that were, and remain, clear.

The interim cabinet was put in place after the military’s removal of Mohammed Morsi in July last year. The interim prime minister, Hazem El Beblawi, was rumoured for weeks to be seeking approval for his resignation. Indeed, his deputy prime minister, Ziad Baha Eldin, is reported to have wanted to resign a while ago before he issued his formal resignation. The reasons for Mr El Beblawi’s desire to resign are unclear, but considering the difficulties the cabinet had in trying to tackle a variety of problems, it should not come as too much of a surprise that many would want to leave government.

This is why many were expecting a reshuffle, and some resignations or dismissals. But Mr El Beblawi was expected to stay in office. Many ministers have been reappointed to the positions they held – at least 15 of them, including the minister of foreign relations, the minister of the interior, and the defence minister. Mr El Beblawi himself has given the driver’s seat to his former housing minister, Ibrahim Mehleb.

The appointment of this minister is problematic: he was not only a member of Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party, but a member of the Policy Committee headed by Gamal Mubarak. Had the political isolation law mooted in the year after the 2011 uprising seen the light of day, it is likely Mr Mehleb would have been barred from politics altogether. Now, he is Egypt’s prime minister.

More than one minister was unaware of the intention of Mr El Beblawi to resign before he issued it. Senior government officials were caught off guard. The speculation that this was a move designed to practically inaugurate the field marshal’s announcement of his presidential candidacy was widely spread – but unfounded. Indeed, within a day or so, it was confirmed by multiple sources that Mr El Sisi would continue to serve as minister of defence. He will, of course, have to resign before he announces a presidential run.

Mr El Sisi is in no rush to do so. Without at least a law for the presidential election in place, Mr El Sisi is likely to remain in office as he goes about putting together his campaign team, as well as a prospective government.

This move raises other questions though, that relate to Mr El Sisi. If presidential elections are held in the middle of April (although some are investigating the feasibility of delaying them), will he announce a new government? Many assume that upon an El Sisi victory, a new cabinet will come into office. That, of course, is entirely possible, which would make this cabinet’s shelf life even shorter. But it is hardly the only scenario. Any cabinet appointments are likely to have been made with due consideration for the preferences of the main power structures in the country. And as such, it is unlikely there will be any new cabinet members that a president El Sisi would be unhappy with, and may not be interested in changing straight away anyway.

Indeed, it may even work completely to a new president’s advantage to have this current cabinet continue until parliamentary elections that are due to take place later this year, especially if the cabinet does well between now and the presidential election. During its tenure, the newly appointed cabinet could be tasked with putting in motion the more painful decisions that will be required after an El Sisi victory, staying in place until parliament sits.

After a parliamentary election, any government would have received the approval of parliament, and it could be at that point, rather than immediately after presidential elections, that a president El Sisi suggests his team, if he decides the current team needed to go. It is unlikely, after all, that there would be strong opposition to the first cabinet nominated by a president El Sisi.

It has been rumoured that Amr Moussa, a significant member of Mr El Sisi’s prospective presidential campaign team, may be offered the post of prime minister after an expected Sisi victory. If so, that may also lend credence to the notion that the current government will be tasked with some of the more difficult policy decisions. That would remove the need for a Moussa government to take those decisions itself, losing political capital in the process.

The reality is that no one really knows yet. Mr El Sisi will declare his candidacy when he is ready to do so, and it will likely be smooth in addition to being well orchestrated, given the amount of support he has within the state and media machinery.

This latest political development in Egypt shows that the Egyptian state has many challenges ahead, including on a structural level. Whatever the reasons for this mass resignation, it was certainly not smooth, nor transparent. The public deserves to know why such a dramatic move was made without any real details indicating why it took place. Instead, the public is likely to wait for a long time before they are told, if ever.

In the meantime, Egyptians continue to wait to see whether or not this next government produces any solutions to the problems that they face.

Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Brookings Institution in Washington DC

Source: The National

Photo: Amir Makar